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Sherpa

Signals from the summit

Trad and crypto market trend signals, bubble watch, macroeconomic regime shifts, portfolio updates, and other musings from the Macro Sherpa.

How to Invest for the Macro Environment (Permanent Portfolio in 2024)

Assets performance varies across the economic cycle.

The popular wisdom is stocks for the long run. That has worked phenomenally well over the last 100+ years for US investors (we are sitting at all-time highs as I write this!), But tucked into those decades of compounding are occasional periods of significant underperformance. But as the saying goes, there's always a bull market somewhere. Different asset classes and even different stocks can and often do perform well when the broader market is weak. That's the essence of diversification and any

macro sherpa

The Macro Sherpa evolved over years on the desk as an analyst at multiple billion dollar asset managers. Quantitative models, tools, and analysis were de rigueur.

Correction Incoming for US Equities!? (New Bubble Model Signals)

Log Periodic Power Law Singularity bubble model showing clusters of early warning signals.

Pardon the clickbait title, anon. But alas, our LPPLS bubble model did recently trigger new “Correction Likely“ signals for the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) and the S&P 500 (SPY). Quick primer… The Log Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model is a mathematical model that is fit to an asset’s price history. It is designed to predict the emergence of financial bubbles. The model defines a bubble as a faster-than-exponential move up in price. The Bubble Early Warning Indicator is an output from this mode

macro sherpa

The Macro Sherpa evolved over years on the desk as an analyst at multiple billion dollar asset managers. Quantitative models, tools, and analysis were de rigueur.

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