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Signals from the summit

Trad and crypto market trend signals, bubble watch, macroeconomic regime shifts, portfolio updates, and other musings from the Macro Sherpa.

How Should Tech Founders Invest?

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Quick hitter today. With all time highs in equity markets and fever dream rallies from Nvidia to Ethereum, it feels like the perfect time to reflect on how tech entrepreneurs should approach managing their wealth. The trope "invest in what you know" springs to mind immediately. But is that the best approach? It all depends on what you're optimizing for. If you're a tech founder, and all your investments outside your company are also tech or tech-adjacent (public or private markets), you're maki

macro sherpa

The Macro Sherpa evolved over years on the desk as an analyst at multiple billion dollar asset managers. Quantitative models, tools, and analysis were de rigueur.

Correction Incoming for US Equities!? (New Bubble Model Signals)

Log Periodic Power Law Singularity bubble model showing clusters of early warning signals.

Pardon the clickbait title, anon. But alas, our LPPLS bubble model did recently trigger new “Correction Likely“ signals for the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) and the S&P 500 (SPY). Quick primer… The Log Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model is a mathematical model that is fit to an asset’s price history. It is designed to predict the emergence of financial bubbles. The model defines a bubble as a faster-than-exponential move up in price. The Bubble Early Warning Indicator is an output from this mode

macro sherpa

The Macro Sherpa evolved over years on the desk as an analyst at multiple billion dollar asset managers. Quantitative models, tools, and analysis were de rigueur.

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