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Sherpa Trend Signal Updates 2024-02-17

Historical 1, 3, and 12 month median forward returns for new Sherpa trend model signals 2024-02-17.

What is good internet!? Welcome to the inaugural Sherpa trend model signal update, where we break down new the new longs and shorts across trad and crypto asset markets. Keep reading to find all out our new longs and shorts. We'll break down the signals and track their historical performance.

But first, some highlights (obviously not financial advice):

  • Total signal flips: 3
  • New longs: 3 (0 trad, 3 crypto)
  • New shorts: 0
  • "Best" long crypto idea - None.

Inauspicious debut, but that’s what the market gave us this week. The few new signals we have from deep in alt coin world have either terrible forward expected returns based on past signals, small sample size of past signals, or both.

Obv past performance doesn't guarantee future results. That said momentum is a well-researched market phenomenon and trend following as a strategy has been practiced successfully for decades. Assets can go through periods where they trend strongly or mean revert over varying time scales. We like trend following because it tends to exhibit positive skew. No idea what the future holds, but signals like these improve our edge.

Quick notes on the models:

  • On the site we maintain daily time series momentum models with 3-month and 12-month lookback windows for hundreds of assets, ranging from s&p 500 constituents, sector, asset class, and country ETF's, to the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap. These signals come from this universe.
  • The signals are calculated on a daily close basis, and for the purposes of this report, a new signal must persist for 5 days in order to be considered valid. The five days is arbitrary, but its a solid first-pass naive filter to help reduce chop and reduce market noise.

(If you're interested in a ticker that we don't currently cover, we can generate models for you on the fly. Search our extended universe here.)

Let's dive into the latest signal changes.


No new signals


Historical 1, 3, and 12 month median forward returns for new Sherpa crypto market trend model signals 2024-02-17.
Historical 1, 3, and 12 month median forward returns for new Sherpa crypto market trend model signals 2024-02-17.

Short Term Trend (3 month lookback)

Asset Fwd Return Horizon Num Signals Mean Fwd Return Median Fwd Return Fwd Return Std Signal Direction
ApeCoin (apecoin) 1m Fwd Return 5 -4.2% 1.4% 10.5% Long
ApeCoin (apecoin) 3m Fwd Return 4 -35.0% -36.9% 22.2% Long
ApeCoin (apecoin) 12m Fwd Return 3 -72.6% -71.9% 5.3% Long
GALA (gala) 1m Fwd Return 8 121.4% -9.8% 376.3% Long
GALA (gala) 3m Fwd Return 8 295.5% 56.6% 601.6% Long
GALA (gala) 12m Fwd Return 6 3812.3% 191.3% 8874.2% Long
Decentraland (decentraland) 1m Fwd Return 22 9.7% 4.0% 46.6% Long
Decentraland (decentraland) 3m Fwd Return 22 136.8% -16.9% 339.0% Long
Decentraland (decentraland) 12m Fwd Return 21 824.1% -34.9% 1617.0% Long

That’s a wrap for this week’s Sherpa Trend Signals. Keep your radio tuned to this station, each week we’ll uncover the latest short and long term trend changes across traditional and crypto markets.


macro sherpa

macro sherpa

macro sherpa

The Macro Sherpa evolved over years on the desk as an analyst at multiple billion dollar asset managers. Quantitative models, tools, and analysis were de rigueur.